Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crotone win with a probability of 58.52%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Livorno had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crotone win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Livorno win it was 1-0 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crotone would win this match.