Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 48.18%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Cittadella had a probability of 24.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Cittadella win it was 0-1 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
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