Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 47.99%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
0.24) 
-0.05) 
