Like the first league game of the season, we would expect this to be a close game, with fine margins between the two sides. However, with the injuries on the Parma side, the slight edge could go to Bari.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Bari had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Parma in this match.
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