Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 60.57%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Ternana had a probability of 17.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Ternana win it was 0-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
-0.25) 
0.02) 
