Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 52.44%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 24.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-2 (6.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.
-0.73) 
0.16) 
