Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 47.16%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 25.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.55%) and 1-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Perugia win it was 1-0 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
-0.11) 
0.12) 
