Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 43.73%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.
0.52) 
-0.55) 
