Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 53.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
0.67) 
-0.26) 
