Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 64.73%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 13.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.29%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Frosinone in this match.
0) 
-0.25) 
