Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 51.94%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Parma had a probability of 22.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for a Parma win it was 0-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.17) 
-0.05) 
