Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 28.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest Palermo win was 1-0 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.04) 
