Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Reggina had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Reggina win was 0-1 (11.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
