Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reggina win with a probability of 49.65%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reggina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
-0.14) 
0.01) 
