Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 51.58%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 22.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ternana in this match.
0.13) 
-0.04) 
