Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 32.77% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Como in this match.
0.66) 
-0.63) 
