Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Perugia in this match.
0.43) 
-0.5) 
