Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Reggiana had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (8.61%). The likeliest Reggiana win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palermo would win this match.
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