Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezia win with a probability of 39.01%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Palermo win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
0.36) 
-0.05) 
