Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (11.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.03) 
