Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 26.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.
-0.3) 
0.09) 
