Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 28.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 1-0 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
-0.48) 
0.52) 
