Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 37.46%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 34.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-0 (11.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
0.18) 
-0.33) 
