Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.05) 
