Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Brescia in this match.