Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ternana in this match.
-0.27) 
0.28) 
