Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 46.16%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 26.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.
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