Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 36.98%. A win for Parma had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (10.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
1.07) 
-1.22) 
