Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 40.43%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
