Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 47.36%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 26.62% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.
0.5) 
-0.35) 
