Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
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