Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Desna Chernihiv win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Desna Chernihiv win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Mariupol win it was 0-1 (7.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.