Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Desna Chernihiv win with a probability of 53.21%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 23.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Desna Chernihiv win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.78%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 1-0 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
