Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metalist Kharkiv win with a probability of 57.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 19.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metalist Kharkiv win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.76%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Mariupol win it was 1-0 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metalist Kharkiv would win this match.
