Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mariupol win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Olimpik Donetsk had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mariupol win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Olimpik Donetsk win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.