Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boston River would win this match.