Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerrito win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerrito win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.