Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 37.19%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
