Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.