Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.51%) and 1-2 (8.24%). The likeliest Penarol win was 1-0 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
