Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 44.45%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 28.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerro Largo in this match.