Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Villa Espanola had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.8%) and 2-1 (7.79%). The likeliest Villa Espanola win was 0-1 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Plaza Colonia would win this match.