Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.47%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (12.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
