Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.79%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 25.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
