Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 35.04%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.03%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 0-1 (12.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.