Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerrito win with a probability of 37.47%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerrito win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.78%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (11.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.