Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 53.95%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 20.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (7.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
