SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 34.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (11.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Fenix |
34.72% ( -0.06) | 28.65% ( -0.05) | 36.63% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 45.85% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.38% ( 0.17) | 60.62% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.29% ( 0.13) | 80.71% ( -0.13) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.09% ( 0.05) | 32.9% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.52% ( 0.06) | 69.47% ( -0.06) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.34% ( 0.15) | 31.66% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.92% ( 0.18) | 68.07% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 11.57% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.74% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 34.71% | 1-1 @ 13.31% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.41% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.26% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.63% | 0-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.89% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.89% Total : 36.63% |
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