Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 27.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (8.79%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
