Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.